Likeliest Organizational Changes in Education in Next 3-5 years

One of the things I love to do is to read what industries other than education are doing to advance themselves, as industries. The November 2011 issue of McKinsey Quarterly features an article entitled, "How social technologies are extending the organization." In that article, the authors undertake a deep dive into their data, gathered by over 4,000 respondents; their findings are meant to correlate with the degree of social media usage within the industry.

One of the most interesting data pieces deals with "likeliest organizational changes in next 3-5 years, without constraints." This post is not about prognosticating what technological developments will occur; rather, it's meant to be more holistic, in the sense of looking at an entire organizational system.

Here are top five (i.e., most likely), in descending order of likelihood:

1. The boundaries between employees, vendors, and customers will blur
2. Teams will self-organize
3. Decisions will be based primarily on data rather than opinion/experience
4. The organization's formal hierarchy will become much flatter or disappear altogether
5. Data used for decision-making will mostly be collected through experiments

Here are the bottom five (i.e., least likely), in descending order of likehlihood:

1. Individual performance will be evaluated by peers rather than by managers
2. Employees will have much more discretion in choosing which tasks to work on
3. Employees will play a much greater role in selecting leaders
4. Large companies and/or business units will disaggregate
5. Compensation decisions will be made by peers rather than by managers

Do these likelihoods have any corollation in schools? I think the answer is "partially." Following are some thoughts:

1. Teams will self-organize, if teachers and administrators become more savvy with social media
2. Decisions will be made on the examination of data, if we learn which data to collect and how to analyze them
3. The formal hierarchy of schools will become much flatter...highly unlikely. Perhaps they will become more complex first, then flex to a flatter model.
4. Data used for decision-making will mostly be collected through experiments...only if "bold schools" (as Will Richardson calls them) are willing to be intentionally experimental.
5. Individual performance will be evaluated by peers rather than managers...no, managers will continue to have a place, but more peers may be incorporated by those "bold schools".
6. Large business units (think: divisions) will disaggregate...highly unlikely, although there may be a "bold school" that is willing to experiment with boundary-less divisions. 

What do readers think about these data points from McKinsey? Please post a comment with your thoughts.

Comments

[Troy P. Roddy, Ph.D.]

Kevin,

I'm not sure about the data points in the article because I, generally, see schools taking more time that 3-5 years to fully embrace organizational changes, especially with technology and social media. As you state, a few "bold schools" may jump in, but those will be the exception.

However, even the most prudently led schools will likely have noticeably different operational philosophies, over the course of the next 3-5 years, when it comes to a few items; many of which are already becoming more prevalent.

1. The availability and acceptance of online courses for credit to their students.

2. The creation of some online learning component designed to promote the school's program.

3. A shift in thinking about the "value of the school" beyond what the school does on site to include value added by sharing (for free) resources and ideas to a larger community of people who may or may not attend your school.

Thanks for the post.