Introit

TdF Leadership Study 2011 (Part 7)

The Tour de France has ended...and no rider from Team Leopard Trek is wearing le maillot jaune, the yellow jersey, that which is worn by the overall first place rider in the general classification. Of course, second and third place finishes are owned by the Leopard Trek team; what's more, they're brothers -- and that, to my knowledge, has not happened before in the Tour (almost 100 years).

So, what happened?

You may recall, if any of you slogged through my earlier posts on the Tour de France 2011, that Team Leopard Trek stayed safe through the Pyrenees and was looking to make serious inroads in the Alpine stages.

Here's my take on the issues:

(1) Stage 16: this stage was expected to be rather non-eventful. The Schleck brothers (those who finished 2nd and 3rd in the general classification, today) were expected to hold strong. However, the weather played a pivotal role. Why? It rained. The Schleck brothers, for whatever reason, fail to do well in the rain. The result on Stage 16 was that they lost time. Andy Schleck, 2nd place overall in the GC today, lost over one minute to Cadel Evans, the Australian, who would go on to win the tour. Stage 16, then, represents a capital miscalculation in their strategy. Leopard Trek simply did not expect this stage to count for much of anything. Wrong.

(2) Stages 18 and 19 propelled Andy Schleck into first place (yellow jersey) and his brother Frank into second place. We all knew that the Schlecks, superb climbers, were looking forward to the Alps. We knew that strong Alpine performances would push them toward the top in the GC standings.

The danger? The Alpine stages would be followed by Stage 20, an individual time-trial...and the Schlecks are weak time-trial riders. As brilliant as they are in the mountains, a time-trial is a weakness, much to the opposite extreme.

Stage 19 finished with Andy ahead of his brother Frank by 53 seconds and Cadel Evans by 57 seconds. Everyone held their breath for the time-trial on Saturday.

(3) Stage 20 time-trial: Cadel Evans absolutely crushed both Schleck brothers in a real tour-de-force. He finished the day, not only having made up the 57-second deficit versus Andy, but took the overall Tour lead by a remarkable 1minute, 34seconds. He owned the time-trial.

Before a Retrospect Moment, let's pause to consider some rather notable things:

1. Team Leopard Trek finished 2nd in the Team Standings; a remarkable result for a first-year team!

2. Andy and Frank finished 2nd and 3rd overall, again, a remarkable result.

In Retrospect
(1) The Pyrenees: personally speaking, I was somewhat shocked that Leopard Trek riders -- namely, Andy or Frank, did not try to win or place at the forefront of at least one of the stages in the Pyrenees. I thought at the time, and still maintain, that such a performance would have been smart, strategically.

(2) Stage 16: the Schlecks, in particular, must prepare better for adverse weather conditions. They cannot afford to lose the kind of time they did on this stage. For example, had Andy finished together with Cadel Evans, the time difference in the time-trial would have been razor thin, instead of resoundingly reassuring on the part of Evans.

(3) Time-Trial: the Schlecks must commit more preparation to time-trials. Although Evans certainly had the ride of his life, the flaws in the Leopard Trek strategy permitted it to occur. Had Andy, in particular, attacked in the Pyrenees and not lost such significant time on Stage 16, the end results would have been different.

(4) In regards to team standings: Leopard Trek had taken over first place in the team standings, and were doing quite well for awhile. What happend? Simply put, they needed more depth and strength in those riders who are "overall" strong riders. They had good flat-land riders (i.e. Fabian Cancellara) and outstanding mountain riders (the Schleck brothers), but they needed better showings from a stalwart main team in order to capture the first place team prize. Whereas they held razor-thin margins for awhile, they finished just over 11 minutes behind the first place team! Even the Schlecks' brilliant performances in the Alps couldn't pull off the team victory.

Mind you, I'm being a bit overly-critical. However, that was the purpose of this study in strategy. For anyone who has taken the time to read what I wrote, I hope that you have been able to follow the strengths and weaknesses in their overall race strategy.

A valliant effort from a first-year team; quite notable, actually.

Bravo, chaps! And now, for 2012... 

TdF Leadership Study 2011 (Part 6)

This post comes on the second "rest day" of the Tour. The stages in the Pyrenees have concluded, and team Leopard Trek stand in first place of the overall team standings, with brothers Frank and Andy Schleck holding positions in the Top 10 of the General Classification (Frank in second place, 1 minute and 49 seconds behind the leader, Frenchman Thomas Voeckler, and Andy in fourth place, 2 minutes and 15 seconds behind Voeckler).

Leopard Trek gave a press conference earlier today. Frank shared their strategy for the Pyrenees; basically, it was to gain time on certain individuals who normally show strength in the mountains: Basso, Contador, and Evans. Frank gained good time, while Andy gained less (but gained, regardless).

After a couple of "transition" stages, the Tour will arrive in the Alps this week, beginning with an "introduction to the Alps" on Tuesday, meaning that the course will have some gradients, but nothing too severe. The severe ones, the "high mountain" days come on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Leopard Trek members reconnoitered these Alpine stages somewhat recently, and believe that their team has the best composition to handle these demanding, sometimes excruciating, stages.

By Friday, we should have a pretty good delineation of the General Classification, with only two stages remaining: an individual time trial in Grenoble, followed by the perfunctory final stage into Paris and up-and-down the Champs-Elysees.

If Leopard Trek's strategy is to attack in the Alps, then they can gain some serious time against the other contenders and solidify their team's first-place standing, hopefully placing both Schleck brothers on the podium in Paris -- and perhaps one of them wearing the mailot jaune.

On verra.

TdF Leadership Study 2011 (Part 5)

The opening, relatively flat part of the Tour ended earlier this week, and today (Thursday) was the first day with significant climbing activity. And Leopard Trek's strategy began to crystallize, to some degree.

The flatter stages ended with three LT teams members in the Top 10; that was a very respectable showing in the general classification; the team itself was ranked near the very top. Today's mountainous stage in the Pyrenees showed the strength and depth of the team, as they began to put forth their effort, which demonstrated the strategy I figured they were using: use the mountains to distance themselves (team-wise) from the other teams. This is where the rubber meets the road.

The Schleck brothers had a great day, with Frank moving into second place overall in the general classification, and Andy into fourth overall. However, the biggest news is that Team Leopard Trek are now in First Place in the team classification! Whereas they used to trail the first-place team by mere single-digit seconds, they now sit 1'05" (one minute, five seconds) ahead of the second place team. I expect that gap to widen more over the next few days.

There were attacks and counter-attacks; LT kept strategy in front of them at all times, and it paid off.

TdF Leadership Study 2011 (Part 4)

More than any recent Tour, this one seems to be ridden with accidents and misfortunes. Some of the "big" names have been forced to drop out of the race due to injuries, seriously lost time on account of accidents, and the like.

Fortunately, for Team Leopard Trek, they appear to have Lady Fortune smiling on them. After nine stages of relatively uninteresting terrain (meaning that there wasn't much in the way of variation), the riders of the Tour have a rest day today. Good thing. Perhaps it's just what is needed before engaging in the next succession of stages, in which the podium (the final podium placements in Paris, at the end of the month) will begin to be sorted out, to some degree.

Strategy-wise, Leopard Trek riders are in a great position. They emerged largely unscathed by the accidents of the first nine stages; they stand in 2nd place in the overall team classification; and, of the top 10 individual riders in the general classification, three are Leopard Trek riders (the next best showing is by two riders from team HTC-Highroad). They have remained safe, yet have chosen to ride toward the front of the peleton (the general pack). This mindset has positioned them well, as this week will see the first serious climbs, and the opportunity to solidify their place in the team standings and individual standings.

TdF Leadership Study 2011 (Part 3)

Stages 4 and 5 did not offer dramatic terrain, but there was some drama nonetheless. Stage 5 was a messy one, with a number of crashes, including one for reigning Tour champion Alberto Contador.

Team Leopard Trek's strategy seems to be in their name: a leopard, waiting to attack. To date, they have been a bit aggressive, being sure to remain near the front; protective, with designated riders covering the team leaders (Frank and Andy Schleck); and cautious, avoiding the larger crashes and paying strict attention to road and environmental conditions.

Bravo, Leopard Trek.

The Tour will become a bit more interesting next week, when we begin to see some variation in topography and begin to consider the Pyrenees. The sprinters, who are performing more favorably now, will begin to fade rather soon, unless there is a powerhouse among them who can handle the arduous mountains...

TdF Leadership Study 2011 (Part 2)

Stage 3 has ended, following on the heels of yesterday's team time trial (Stage 2), and Leopard Trek remains in fourth place in overall team standings.

What is remarkable, however, is that 4 of the top 10 riders in the individual standings are members of team Leopard Trek! Following Stage 3, the team remains 4 seconds from first place, as it did yesterday. The team is holding its own.

The announced goal was to "stay safe and avoid any time gaps at the finish." They did just that. Small mistakes could prove costly to the team at this point in the overall Tour, so playing it safe makes good sense.

Tomorrow's Stage 4 has an uphill finish that is just shy of 2 kilometers; that uphill finish may well be the bane of the sprinters, who probably will fare well on the relatively flat ride that the day promises otherwise. The incline, however, is certainly nothing like the grades the riders will face in the Pyrenees and the Alps!

So far, the strategy is holding.

Leadership Study Begins: Tour de France 2011

As promised months ago, I'm launching a short series on the leadership in the Tour de France -- specifically, I am following team Leopard Trek, a Luxemburg-based group of riders that includes the Schleck brothers (Andy finished 39 seconds behind last year's winner, Alberto Contador). These riders are young (the vast majority of them), and I'm keen to see how they work as a team. They've been successful so far this season, but the Tour de France is the most grueling race of them all.

Yesterday, July 2, marked the first stage of the Tour. As always, the goal in the first few stages is to race well and stay safe; serious contenders are not looking to grab the lead from the starting line. There were two rather nasty accidents in yesterday's stage, but fortunately Leopard Trek finished strong, as their riders were not as affected by the crashes as other teams. They stand at 3rd place overall (team standings), just 6 seconds behind the lead team, Omega-Pharma Lotto.

Fabien Cancellara, team member, attacked during the last kilometers of the race, hoping to win the stage, but was bested by another rider who was waiting for him to do just that! Fabien thinks that he attacked too quickly. We will see if he has learned from that episode, as we continue to follow the team over the next few days in the early stages.

What I'm really enjoying about following team Leopard Trek is their use of Twitter in particular. The riders tweet from time to time throughout the day; followers are given snapshots of what their day is like -- when they rest, when and where they're eating, the fact that they've just shaved their legs again, that they're excited for the team time trial (today, July 3).